Indonesia experienced a consistent decline in fertility over the period 1971–2000. According to the population census, the birth rate fell from 5.6% of children per woman in 1971 to 2.34% of children per woman in 2000. The decline in the birth rate in Indonesia then experienced stagnation (fertility stalling). Based on the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), stagnation in fertility decline is at a higher level. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was stagnant at 2.6% of children per woman according to the results of the DHS in 2002/2003, 2007, and 2012.
A Senior Researcher at the Demographic Institute, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LD FEB UI) and a Professor of FEB UI, Prof. Dra. Omas Bulan Samosir, Ph.D., said that there were 14 provinces that experienced a stagnant decline in fertility in the 2000–2010 period. The fourteen provinces were Riau, DKI Jakarta, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Southeast Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Maluku, and North Maluku.
“DKI Jakarta, Yogyakarta, and East Java already have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1% children per woman, 1.81%, 1.94%, and 2% children per woman respectively. This is something that needs to be maintained because if it is ignored, in 2065 to 2070 Indonesia will experience a decline in birth rates like those experienced by China and Singapore,” said Prof. Omas.
Prof. Omas assessed the need for development planning in the field of Keluarga Berencana (KB) that is in accordance with regional conditions, especially regarding factors that impact fertility because fertility trends in each province vary. In a Monthly Discussion entitled “Decomposition of Fertility” held by LD FEB UI, last Tuesday (31/1), she mentioned several factors that affect fertility decline in Indonesia, including marital patterns, the effectiveness of contraception and abortion, and infertility during breastfeeding. An understanding of these factors is important for the intervention program in fertility management, both at the national and sub-national levels.
Based on the DHS in 1991 and 2017, there had been changes in fertility measures in Indonesia based on these three factors. The strength of the influence of fertility restrictions from the marriage pattern decreased, whereas the strength of the influence of fertility restrictions from the use and effectiveness of contraception pattern increased. Meanwhile, the effect of fertility restriction from infertility patterns during breastfeeding shows a downward trend.
DHS data in 2017 shows that marital patterns contribute to reducing the overall fertility rate (TFR) to 68% of the marital fertility rate (TMFR). Provinces with higher fertility rates (TFR>3) had a higher proportion of married population, including East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, West Papua, and Papua.
The use and effectiveness of contraception pattern contributed to reducing the marital fertility rate (TMFR) to 33% of the natural fertility rate (fertility rate in marriages without contraception use and intentional abortion/TNMFR). Provinces with lower marital fertility rates (TMFR<4) had higher effectiveness of contraception, including Yogyakarta, Central Kalimantan, and Bangka Belitung Islands.
The pattern of infertility during breastfeeding contributed to reducing the natural fertility rate (TNMFR) to 88% of the fecundity level (fertility rate in marriage without the use of contraception and intentional abortion and breastfeeding). Provinces with higher natural fertility rates (TNMFR>14) had shorter median infertility during lactation, such as Yogyakarta.
When combined, marital patterns and the use and effectiveness of contraception contributed to reducing the overall fertility rate (TFR) to only 22% of the natural fertility rate (TNMFR). Marital patterns, the use and effectiveness of contraception, and infertility during breastfeeding all contributed to reducing the overall fertility rate (TFR) to only 20% of the fecundity rate (TF).
In order to prevent a decline in fertility which results in a decrease in population, Prof. Omas recommended fertility management which includes promoting delaying the age of marriage, promoting the use and effectiveness of contraception, and promoting breastfeeding. The intervention program in fertility management must be adjusted to the factors that influence them.
In this case, the role of the National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) is expected not only as a regulatory institution to reduce fertility but also as an institution that maintains it at a certain level. The family planning program can be strengthened by utilizing revolution 4.0 as well as information and communication technology to increase the development goal of Family Development, Population, and Family Planning (KKBPK) in Indonesia.
